Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.989 · ask 0.990
Price history
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No50 ptsYes50 pts
Market flow
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Notable actors
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Evidence
Source quality
Strong
Identifiability
Strong
Coverage
3 of 3 desired categories
Sources
4
Freshness
0.17
Missing
none
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
Evidence timeline
2026-08-19 · Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026 · Active
2026-08-19 · 10-year Treasury yield · Contextual
2026-08-05 · Cook, Outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan Economies · Active
2026-07-14 · Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on June 8 and June 17, 2026 · Contextual
2026-07-08 · Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026 · Contextual
2026-07-01 · CPI (all urban consumers) · Active
2026-07-01 · Federal funds effective rate · Active
2026-07-01 · Unemployment rate · Active
E1 · FRED · contextual · suit 0.20 · Apr 1Gross domestic product · GDP is lagging and weakly suited to a near-term FOMC decision.
E2 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.05 · May 26Minutes of the Board's discount rate meeting on April 20 and 29, 2026 · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
E3 · Federal Reserve speeches · contextual · suit 0.08 · May 28Jefferson, Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
· contextual · suit 0.08 · May 29
Signals
Interpretations of evidence. Not trade instructions.
growth
+ strongly positive
GDP is a lagging quarterly growth observation. It is not a direct hawkish/dovish meeting signal.
inflation
+ moderately hawkish
Rising inflation is hawkish pressure, all else equal. This is a trend, not a surprise versus consensus.
policy rate
· mildly uncertain
This is the current policy rate level/trend, not a forecast of the next meeting move.
labor
+ moderately hawkish
Falling unemployment may contribute hawkish pressure, all else equal. Surprise versus consensus is unknown.
yields
− mildly dovish
Yield moves are background. They do not identify a 25 vs 50 bps decision by themselves.
Related markets
Nested and exclusive relationships. Coherence is a deterministic check, not a model judgment.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
Independent probability
25.0%
model
Market probability
1.1%
quote, Stage B
Estimated edge
+23.8 pts
M/ARC
Decision
ATTENTION
M/ARC
Model confidence
40.0%
model
Evidence quality
Thin
source quality
Identifiability
—
event coverage
Coherence
Coherent
related markets
Forecast confidence
40.0%
M/ARC combination
Status
recorded
record
Base rate
25.0%
model
Base-rate reason
E4 · Federal Reserve speeches
Bowman, A Framework for Practical Monetary Policy Decision Making · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
E5 · Federal Reserve speeches · contextual · suit 0.08 · Jun 1Powell, Acceptance Remarks · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
E6 · FRED · active · suit 0.40 · Jul 1CPI (all urban consumers) · CPI/PCE informs inflation pressure, not the exact hike size.
E7 · FRED · active · suit 0.90 · Jul 1Federal funds effective rate · Current policy rate is the starting point for a meeting decision.
E8 · FRED · active · suit 0.35 · Jul 1Unemployment rate · Labor trend informs stance, not the exact 25 vs 50 bps split.
E9 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.12 · Jul 8Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026 · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.
E10 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.05 · Jul 14Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on June 8 and June 17, 2026 · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.
E11 · Federal Reserve speeches · active · suit 0.95 · Aug 5Cook, Outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan Economies · Current-cycle speech is meeting-specific.
E12 · FRED · contextual · suit 0.40 · Aug 1910-year Treasury yield · Treasury yields are background, not meeting-specific identification.
E13 · Federal Reserve · active · suit 0.85 · 36h agoMinutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026 · Current-cycle minutes is meeting-specific.
E14 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E15 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E16 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E17 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E18 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E19 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
evidence-v2 · c3da6e0caab7
Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve has made significant interest rate changes in response to economic conditions, but a 25 basis point decrease is not guaranteed and depends on various factors including inflation and employment data leading up to the meeting.
Adjustments
No specific evidence provided regarding economic conditions or Fed's stance leading up to the meeting, which limits the ability to adjust the base rate probability significantly.
Evidence citations
question, description, event
Why M/ARC differs
Given the historical context of Federal Reserve decisions and the lack of specific evidence regarding the economic situation leading up to the meeting, a base rate of 0.25 was chosen. Adjustments were minimal due to insufficient evidence to suggest a higher or lower probability.
Uncertainty
Economic conditions leading up to the meeting are unknown Potential for unexpected economic events that could influence Fed decisions
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · macroeconomics · 21 Aug 2026, 07:01 UTC
Forecast history
21 Aug 2026, 07:01 UTC · 25.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v2
21 Aug 2026, 06:31 UTC · 25.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v4
20 Aug 2026, 00:43 UTC · 20.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v2
18 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC · 10.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v4
18 Aug 2026, 18:21 UTC · 10.0% · PASS · forecast-v3-joint
18 Aug 2026, 17:53 UTC · 25.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v3
