MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Only 6 resolved forecasts. Results are not statistically meaningful yet.
Headline totals mix prompt versions and evidence settings. Use the segments below; do not treat the aggregate as one model.
Forecasts
169
Resolved
6
Unresolved
163
PASS / ATTENTION / CANDIDATE
77 / 91 / 1
M/ARC Brier
0.205
Market Brier
0.422
Vs market
+51.4% vs market Brier
Observed YES rate vs average predicted probability. Counts shown; tiny buckets are not meaningful.
| Bucket | Avg predicted | Observed | Error | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | — | — | — | 0 |
| 10–20% | — | — | — | 0 |
| 20–30% | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30–40% | — | — | — | 0 |
| 40–50% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 3 |
| 50–60% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 3 |
| 60–70% | — | — | — | 0 |
| 70–80% | — | — | — | 0 |
| 80–90% | — | — | — | 0 |
| 90–100% | — | — | — | 0 |
MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS