
MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Team Spirit and Team Liquid in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against Team Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 21, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Volume
$4.5M
Liquidity
$1.9M
Spread
0.010
Closes
22 Aug 2026 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
https://www.dotabuff.com
Updated
22 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
External ID
3761934
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Spirit | 63.5% | 0.630 | 0.640 | 0.010 |
| Team Liquid | 36.5% | 0.360 | 0.370 | 0.010 |
condition 0x9395d17548525858db6a29acefc0f2d9e1c4d4c0aa1e1f1653df624e09ebe871
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.630 · ask 0.640
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
No specific base rate for Team Spirit's performance in this context is available from the evidence provided.
evidence-v2 · e15c9197ce25
E1, E2, E3, E4, E5, E6
Given the lack of specific performance data or recent results for both teams, the estimate for Team Spirit's probability of winning is based on a general assessment of competitive balance in Dota 2 matches. The confidence is low due to the thinness of the evidence and absence of recent performance indicators.
Lack of recent performance data for both teams Potential for unexpected outcomes in esports matches Absence of head-to-head results or player conditions
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v4 · sports · e15c9197ce25 · 22 Aug 2026, 00:01 UTC