Brazil Presidential Election

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Volume

$8.8M

Liquidity

$479.0K

Spread

0.010

Closes

04 Oct 2026 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

22 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC

External ID

601819

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	62.5%	0.620	0.630	0.010
No	37.5%	0.370	0.380	0.010

condition 0xdf8e2dc5860027decbe6164555c3c1c9645c3bd33e16b9dc57ca87125047d4a8

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.620 · ask 0.630

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes177 ptsNo177 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality: Thin
Identifiability: Weak
Coverage: 1 of 3 desired categories
Sources: 1
Freshness: 1.00
Missing: polling or campaign status

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

E1 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E2 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E3 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E4 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E5 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E6 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.

Independent probability: 25.0%; model
Market probability: 62.5%; quote, Stage B
Estimated edge: -37.5 pts; M/ARC
Decision: PASS; M/ARC
Model confidence: 30.0%; model
Evidence quality: Thin · 0.65; source quality
Identifiability: Weak · 0.08; event coverage
Coherence: Unconstrained; related markets
Forecast confidence: 13.4%; M/ARC combination
Status: recorded; record

Base-rate reason

No relevant base rate available for Lula's chances in the 2026 election due to lack of polling or candidate status information.