Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.997 · ask 0.998
Price history
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No212 ptsYes212 pts
Market flow
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Notable actors
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Evidence
Source quality
Strong
Identifiability
Strong
Coverage
3 of 3 desired categories
Sources
4
Freshness
0.17
Missing
none
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
Evidence timeline
2026-08-19 · Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026 · Active
2026-08-19 · 10-year Treasury yield · Contextual
2026-08-05 · Cook, Outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan Economies · Active
2026-07-14 · Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on June 8 and June 17, 2026 · Contextual
2026-07-08 · Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026 · Contextual
2026-07-01 · CPI (all urban consumers) · Active
2026-07-01 · Federal funds effective rate · Active
2026-07-01 · Unemployment rate · Active
E1 · FRED · contextual · suit 0.20 · Apr 1Gross domestic product · GDP is lagging and weakly suited to a near-term FOMC decision.
E2 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.05 · May 26Minutes of the Board's discount rate meeting on April 20 and 29, 2026 · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
E3 · Federal Reserve speeches · contextual · suit 0.08 · May 28Jefferson, Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
· contextual · suit 0.08 · May 29
Signals
Interpretations of evidence. Not trade instructions.
growth
+ strongly positive
GDP is a lagging quarterly growth observation. It is not a direct hawkish/dovish meeting signal.
inflation
+ moderately hawkish
Rising inflation is hawkish pressure, all else equal. This is a trend, not a surprise versus consensus.
policy rate
· mildly uncertain
This is the current policy rate level/trend, not a forecast of the next meeting move.
labor
+ moderately hawkish
Falling unemployment may contribute hawkish pressure, all else equal. Surprise versus consensus is unknown.
yields
− mildly dovish
Yield moves are background. They do not identify a 25 vs 50 bps decision by themselves.
Related markets
Nested and exclusive relationships. Coherence is a deterministic check, not a model judgment.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
Independent probability
25.0%
model
Market probability
0.2%
quote, Stage B
Estimated edge
+24.7 pts
M/ARC
Decision
ATTENTION
M/ARC
Model confidence
60.0%
model
Evidence quality
Strong · 0.76
source quality
Identifiability
Strong · 0.65
event coverage
Coherence
Coherent
related markets
Forecast confidence
47.4%
M/ARC combination
Status
recorded
record
Base rate
25.0%
model
E4 · Federal Reserve speeches
Bowman, A Framework for Practical Monetary Policy Decision Making · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
E5 · Federal Reserve speeches · contextual · suit 0.08 · Jun 1Powell, Acceptance Remarks · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
E6 · FRED · active · suit 0.40 · Jul 1CPI (all urban consumers) · CPI/PCE informs inflation pressure, not the exact hike size.
E7 · FRED · active · suit 0.90 · Jul 1Federal funds effective rate · Current policy rate is the starting point for a meeting decision.
E8 · FRED · active · suit 0.35 · Jul 1Unemployment rate · Labor trend informs stance, not the exact 25 vs 50 bps split.
E9 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.12 · Jul 8Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026 · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.
E10 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.05 · Jul 14Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on June 8 and June 17, 2026 · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.
E11 · Federal Reserve speeches · active · suit 0.95 · Aug 5Cook, Outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan Economies · Current-cycle speech is meeting-specific.
E12 · FRED · contextual · suit 0.40 · Aug 1910-year Treasury yield · Treasury yields are background, not meeting-specific identification.
E13 · Federal Reserve · active · suit 0.85 · 37h agoMinutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026 · Current-cycle minutes is meeting-specific.
E14 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E15 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E16 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E17 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E18 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E19 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-09-16Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
evidence-v2 · 61dcd59b1c96
Base-rate reason
There is no clear historical base rate for a 50+ bps decrease in interest rates, as such significant changes are rare and depend heavily on economic conditions at the time of the meeting.
Adjustments
Current inflation trends are hawkish (E6) which typically would discourage rate cuts. Falling unemployment may also suggest a stronger economy, contributing to hawkish pressure (E8). The current policy rate is stable, indicating no immediate pressure for a significant cut (E7).
Evidence citations
E6, E7, E8, E11, E13
Why M/ARC differs
Given the hawkish signals from inflation and labor markets, alongside a stable policy rate, the likelihood of a 50+ bps decrease in interest rates appears low. The absence of a historical base rate for such a significant cut further supports a conservative estimate.
Uncertainty
Economic conditions may change rapidly leading up to the meeting. Unexpected external shocks could influence the Fed's decision. The Fed's communication and guidance leading up to the meeting may provide additional context.
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v4 · macroeconomics · 61dcd59b1c96 · 21 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC
Forecast history
21 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC · 25.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v4
21 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC · 5.0% · PASS · forecast-v2
21 Aug 2026, 06:01 UTC · 15.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v2
18 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC · 5.0% · PASS · forecast-v4
18 Aug 2026, 18:21 UTC · 5.0% · PASS · forecast-v3-joint
18 Aug 2026, 17:53 UTC · 15.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v3
